Reading a carrier's compensation policy without a lawyer
Four clauses compared across carriers, with the claim deadline as the decisive one. That figure is the reason this reading exists, and everything below traces back to the same 96-entry sample collected on 2026-10-05.
Declared value and its two consequences
The declared figure sets two things at once: the duty the parcel attracts and the ceiling on any compensation if it is lost. They cannot be optimised separately, which is why the choice is a decision rather than an entry field.
| Declared value | Duty modelled | Compensation ceiling |
|---|---|---|
| Below destination threshold | $0.00 | Equals declared value |
| Just above threshold | $0.00–$6.00 | Equals declared value |
| Well above threshold | $6.00–$17.40 | Equals declared value |
| Under-declared | Lower | Lower by the same amount |
Modelled from published thresholds for the four destination regions. This is not tax advice; verify current rules for your destination.
Estimate error concentrates near thresholds. That is a property of the rules, not of the model: a step function produces large effects from small changes exactly at the step.
Declare accurately and keep the order record. A plausible figure with evidence survives a claim; a precise figure without evidence does not.
Where a figure needs checking against the live catalogue, the entries themselves are on the current list on kabosheet.
Two clauses, one declared value
Both clauses are anchored to the declared value. Storage is charged against an item you have not yet shipped; the insurance ceiling is set by the value you declared. Raising one without the other creates a gap that only appears when something goes wrong.
| Declared value | Premium range | Compensation ceiling | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | $0.00–$0.80 | $40 | Not worth insuring |
| $120 | $0.60–$2.40 | $120 | Marginal |
| $400 | $2.00–$8.00 | $400 | Worth insuring |
Premium from published carrier rates; break-even from the loss-probability model in the insurance tool.
Deadlines decide more claims than ceilings do. A parcel left unopened for nine days can lose a valid claim under a seven-day term, which is a worse outcome than a low declared value.
- Check which clock start applies before relying on a storage deadline.
- Decide whether the extension costs less than the freight of a second parcel.
- Photograph the parcel before opening it, on the day it arrives.
Where each figure comes from
Everything in this reading comes from one of three sources, and each figure says which: measured from our sample, community-reported, or read from a published term. Where none applies we write “Not measured” instead of filling the gap.
- Measured
- Stage timestamps and weights from the 96-entry sample, collected on 2026-10-05.
- Community-reported
- Patterns that recur in buyer discussions and that we could not reproduce ourselves.
- Published
- Read from carrier tariffs, agent fee pages and destination thresholds.
- Not measured
- Anything we could not source. Written as such rather than estimated.
Our largest known error source is the weight band assignment, which comes from category baselines rather than individual weighing. It is systematic rather than random, and we say so wherever the bands appear.
Sample sizes are given for every range on this site. A range without a sample size is not a measurement, it is an opinion.
The four lanes, compared
Freight is a step function, not a curve, and the four published lanes differ in where the steps fall as much as in their height. On a light (< 0.8 kg) parcel the UK standard lane quotes $6.40–$10.80 at 1.5 kg.
| Lane | Freight at 1.5 kg | Median days | p90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| US economy | $5.90–$9.40 | 19 | 31 |
| US express | $11.40–$17.20 | 11 | 21 |
| UK standard | $6.40–$10.80 | 16 | 28 |
| EU standard | $7.10–$11.90 | 21 | 36 |
Freight modelled from published tariffs; transit measured from stage timestamps in the sample.
Between 1.5 kg and 8 kg the express premium roughly doubles while the transit advantage shrinks by a day. If you are paying for speed, pay for it on a light parcel; above 5 kg you are mostly paying for a label.
- UK standard: $6.40–$56.10 across the full weight range, median 16 days.
- Under 3 kg, express is usually worth it; above 5 kg it rarely is.
- Above 9–10 kg the question becomes parcel count rather than lane.
Sensitivity, ranked
Four variables carry almost all the sensitivity: billed weight, declared value, lane and item value. Two of them move more than one cost segment at once, which is why single-variable optimisation produces surprises.
- Billed weight moves freight, and only freight — but by a full band.
- Declared value moves duty and the compensation ceiling together.
- Item value moves the service fee, and only under a percentage model.
- Lane moves freight and transit; it does not move duty at all.
On the reference lane a light (< 0.8 kg) parcel quotes $5.90–$9.40. The same parcel repacked one band lighter saves more than the difference between the two cheapest lanes.
| Variable | Segments moved | Typical effect |
|---|---|---|
| Billed weight | Freight | One full tariff step |
| Declared value | Duty, ceiling | Up to $17.40 |
| Lane | Freight, transit | $3–$9 plus 7–8 days |
| Item value | Service fee | 1–3% of item value |
Ranked from the census distributions; individual orders vary.
The handoff nobody owns
Eight handoffs separate payment from delivery, and each has a nominal owner. One of them — the QC verdict — has no owner at all: the warehouse takes the photographs and you decide what they mean.
- Payment to seller
- Agent owns the transaction; you own the accuracy of the buy request.
- Seller to warehouse
- Seller owns dispatch; agent owns follow-up.
- Check-in
- Warehouse owns registration; the storage clock starts here at some agents.
- QC
- Shared and therefore ambiguous — the only genuinely unowned step.
- Packing
- Warehouse owns dimensions; you own the consolidation instruction.
- Export
- Agent owns documentation; you own supplying complete details.
- Clearance
- Carrier owns the filing; you own the declaration.
- Last mile
- Carrier owns delivery; you own address accuracy.
Tail risk concentrates at the seller, the clearance desk and the doorstep. Two of the three are entirely within your control before you pay.
| Handoff | Median | p90 | Tail cause |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seller to warehouse | 3 days | 8 days | Seller does not confirm |
| Import clearance | 2 days | 9 days | Random inspection |
| Last mile | 5 days | 15 days | Failed delivery attempt |
From the 96-order sample.
The comparison, with the constant held fixed
Comparing lanes only means something if the parcel is held constant. One parcel, one weight band at a time, one item mix — anything else is a different question with a different answer.
| Weight band | Economy | Express | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 kg | $5.90–$9.40 | $11.40–$17.20 | +$5.50 |
| 3 kg | $9.20–$15.10 | $17.10–$26.40 | +$7.90 |
| 5 kg | $14.80–$24.30 | $25.30–$39.70 | +$10.50 |
| 8 kg | $22.60–$36.90 | $36.20–$57.10 | +$13.60 |
| 12 kg | $31.40–$52.80 | $48.90–$78.40 | +$17.50 |
Modelled from published tariffs on the collection date.
Express buys eight days at 1.5 kg and seven at 8 kg, for two and a half times the money. That is the entire case for choosing on weight rather than on urgency.
- At 1.5 kg
- About $0.69 per day saved — a deadline makes this obvious.
- At 8 kg
- About $1.94 per day saved — a different week is the better lever.
- At 12 kg
- About $2.50 per day saved — a second parcel or a later date wins.
Sources, sample and dates
Everything here traces to one of three sources and carries a collection date. Item prices are published figures read on 2026-10-05; freight and duty are modelled from published terms; transit figures are measured from order timestamps.
| Figure type | Source label | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Item value | Published | 96 listings |
| Transit stages | Measured | 96 orders |
| Freight ranges | Published tariffs | 4 lanes × 5 bands |
| Duty ranges | Published thresholds | 4 destination regions |
| Fee ranges | Published fee pages | 11 agents |
| Weight bands | Derived from category baselines | 96 entries |
The weight band assignment is the largest known source of error and is systematic rather than random.
Where a figure was unavailable we record “Not measured”. That is a deliberate choice: an empty cell is more useful than a plausible one, because it tells you where the uncertainty actually is.
Corrections are logged publicly on the errata page, with the date and what changed.
The three places money is lost
Risk in this process is concentrated in three places: the declaration, the packing and the claim window. Each has a different probability and a very different cost when it goes wrong.
| Risk | Frequency in sample | Cost when it happens |
|---|---|---|
| Packed volume exceeds estimate | 31 of 96 | +$3.10 median, up to +$11.80 |
| Declaration falls outside threshold | Uncommon | Up to +$17.40 duty |
| Claim window missed | Rare | Full declared value |
| Lane substituted without notice | Occasional | +$3 to +$9 |
| Storage exceeds free window | Occasional | Charged in blocks |
Frequencies from the sample; costs modelled from published terms.
The cheapest mitigation is also the highest-value one: measure the packed parcel before paying freight. It addresses the most frequent risk at the lowest cost.
- Measure packed dimensions before the freight payment, not after.
- Declare accurately and keep the order record.
- Photograph the parcel on the day it arrives, before opening it.
- Note the claim deadline in a calendar on the delivery date.
The three things worth taking away
- Four clauses compared across carriers, with the claim deadline as the decisive one.
- Reference lane for this reading: UK standard; reference band: light (< 0.8 kg); reference category: headwear.
- Skeleton ㉛, cluster C, 1465 words of body text. Source labels defined on /standards/.
Found a number that does not hold up? Tell us and we will log the correction. Source labels are defined on the method page.