Duty treatment is the first thing that changes when the destination changes, the transit tail is the second, and base freight is the third. What does not change is the shape of the weight-band tariff, which is the same on all four lanes.
See what is listed for US · The US — Economy lane · Declared value tool
| Region | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | US Jan: open window. No published surcharge. | US Feb: tight window, ship 3 days earlier. Spring Festival in the origin city slows the warehouse; ship three days earlier. | US Mar: open window. No published surcharge. | US Apr: open window. No published surcharge. | US May: open window. No published surcharge. | US Jun: open window. No published surcharge. | US Jul: open window. No published surcharge. | US Aug: peak surcharge. Carrier peak surcharge applies from mid-August on express services. | US Sep: peak surcharge. Peak surcharge continues; economy lane still open. | US Oct: peak surcharge, ship 5 days earlier. Peak surcharge plus five extra days typical; the busiest month in our sample. | US Nov: peak surcharge, ship 4 days earlier. Peak surcharge continues through the Thanksgiving window. | US Dec: tight window, ship 6 days earlier. Pre-holiday cut-off; parcels shipped after the first week risk January delivery. |
| UK | UK Jan: open window. No published surcharge. | UK Feb: tight window, ship 3 days earlier. Spring Festival effect on warehouse throughput. | UK Mar: open window. No published surcharge. | UK Apr: open window. No published surcharge. | UK May: open window. No published surcharge. | UK Jun: open window. No published surcharge. | UK Jul: open window. No published surcharge. | UK Aug: tight window, ship 2 days earlier. Summer holiday staffing reduces clearance desk capacity. | UK Sep: peak surcharge. Peak surcharge begins on express services. | UK Oct: peak surcharge, ship 4 days earlier. Peak surcharge plus four extra days typical. | UK Nov: peak surcharge, ship 5 days earlier. Peak surcharge; the pre-Christmas cut-off falls in this month. | UK Dec: tight window, ship 7 days earlier. Customs backlog after the holiday period; ship before mid-month. |
| EU | EU Jan: open window. No published surcharge. | EU Feb: tight window, ship 4 days earlier. Spring Festival plus reduced European network capacity. | EU Mar: open window. No published surcharge. | EU Apr: open window. No published surcharge. | EU May: open window. No published surcharge. | EU Jun: open window. No published surcharge. | EU Jul: tight window, ship 3 days earlier. Pre-August rush; book consolidation slots earlier than usual. | EU Aug: tight window, ship 5 days earlier. Reduced schedules across parts of the European network. | EU Sep: peak surcharge. Peak surcharge starts on express services. | EU Oct: peak surcharge, ship 5 days earlier. Peak surcharge plus five extra days typical. | EU Nov: peak surcharge, ship 6 days earlier. Peak surcharge; clearance queues lengthen noticeably. | EU Dec: tight window, ship 8 days earlier. Year-end backlog; the longest tail of any month for this region. |
| CA | CA Jan: open window. No published surcharge. Shares the US economy lane. | CA Feb: tight window, ship 3 days earlier. Spring Festival effect, as on the US lane. | CA Mar: open window. No published surcharge. | CA Apr: open window. No published surcharge. | CA May: open window. No published surcharge. | CA Jun: open window. No published surcharge. | CA Jul: open window. No published surcharge. | CA Aug: peak surcharge. Peak surcharge applies from mid-August on express services. | CA Sep: peak surcharge. Peak surcharge continues. | CA Oct: peak surcharge, ship 5 days earlier. Peak surcharge plus five extra days typical. | CA Nov: peak surcharge, ship 4 days earlier. Peak surcharge continues. | CA Dec: tight window, ship 6 days earlier. Pre-holiday cut-off, as on the US lane. |
open window · peak surcharge · tight window. States come from published carrier announcements; a cell with no announcement is marked open, which is not the same as cheap.
| Item | Treatment in our model |
|---|---|
| Threshold | The US publishes a de minimis threshold below which no duty is collected on most consumer goods; entries under roughly $200 in our sample showed no charge. Verify the current figure before relying on it. |
| Compensation ceiling | Equals the declared value on every destination — the ceiling and the duty are anchored to the same number |
| Below threshold | No duty modelled; the declaration still sets the ceiling |
| Above threshold | Modelled range of $0.00–$17.40 across the census, varying by product type |
Modelled from published thresholds. This is not tax advice; verify the current rules for your destination before relying on a figure.
Bands show the p10 to p90 span for each stage; the solid tick is the median and the open circle marks where the slowest tenth begins. Sample size is printed per stage.
| Item value | $21.30–$76.22 |
| Domestic delivery | $0.40–$3.10 |
| Service fee | $1.20–$9.80 |
| International freight (compressible) | $5.90–$41.50 |
| Duty (compressible) | $0.00–$17.40 |
| Insurance | $0.00–$2.60 |
Midpoint total about $89.71 before item value is chosen. Punched rows are the compressible segments.
Most likely to overrun: Duty is the segment to watch here. Declared value is high enough that a single mis-stated figure can add more than the entire service fee.
| Surprise | Why it happens |
|---|---|
| The estimate omitted duty entirely | Duty depends on the declaration and the destination, both of which the payment flow treats as later decisions. Its absence reads as zero. |
| The transit tail is longer than the median suggests | The p90 on this lane is 40 days against a median of 20. |
| Freight changed after packing | Volumetric weight is measured on the packed parcel, and a packed parcel is bigger than an unpacked one. |
None of the three is specific to this destination, but all three show up more often on longer lanes.